There are currently around 55,000 Taliban fighters active in Afghanistan. Even after nearly fourteen years of Operation Enduring Freedom by western NATO forces, such activity by the Taliban is truly worrying.
In February last year, peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, brokered by the United States, began in Doha, Qatar, in continuation of talks between the United States and the Taliban to withdraw foreign troops.
While the talks on the release of detainees have not been very fruitful, the US government has decided to withdraw all US troops from Afghan soil by September 11 this year, two decades before the 9/11 attacks.
Taliban forces have already captured a third of the country in the wake of the withdrawal of troops from May 1 this year. According to the United Nations, the Taliban are targeting capitals in different provinces, which can take over the entire country as soon as foreign troops are fully withdrawn.
But in practice, the evidence did not match, but the opposite happened. Unable to fight the Taliban, thousands of Afghan troops have fled to neighboring Tajikistan.
In short, NATO's position on the complete withdrawal of foreign troops, the activities of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as the current attitude of the Afghan people towards the Taliban, and the Taliban's response to all this have the potential to increase instability on Afghan soil.
Tajik officials say Afghan troops have been forced to flee the country to save lives. Another neighboring country, Uzbekistan, has also seen a surge in troops.
Following the media coverage, the Afghan government has acknowledged that it has failed to put up a strong resistance against the Taliban.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, fifty-five to eighty-five thousand Taliban fighters are currently active in Afghanistan.
Even after nearly fourteen years of Operation Enduring Freedom by western NATO forces, such activity by the Taliban is truly worrying.
Since the 2001 Us campaign in Afghanistan, the Afghan military has been receiving many sophisticated weapons and military equipment.
But the way Taliban forces are currently releasing Afghan forces is no doubt inheriting the sophisticated equipment provided by the Americans, which is even more worrying.
Us media Forbes has already warned that if fuel is provided, Taliban forces will be able to build large mobile combat forces with these military vehicles.
Experts also believe that Taliban forces are now several times more powerful than in 2001. There is no doubt about this idea.
This is because according to u.S. researchers, 1,100 NATO troops, 73,000 Afghan military personnel, and at least 46,000 civilians were killed by the Taliban from 2007 to 2020, including 6,000 U.S. troops.
Against these figures, 10,000 or more members of Taliban forces have been killed. These figures show how effective lying Taliban forces have played against the West in the two-decade guerrilla war.
In addition, the Taliban group was able to capture about 19 percent of Afghanistan in the midst of full western activity until early 2021, which is now expanding slowly.
Despite tight surveillance by NATO forces and un-blockades, Taliban forces have been able to keep their funding operational through poppy cultivation, mining, drugs, and other commercial activities.
A UN report showed that the Taliban earned USD 400 million through drug trade in 2018. Obviously, how hard the Taliban poles are in Afghanistan.
And not just Afghanistan; Another Taliban wing is believed to be active in Pakistan as well, better known as the Pakistani Taliban.
Analysts believe that a region bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan has become a "sanctuary" for terrorism for the welfare of the Taliban in both countries.
There are clear indications that the Taliban will occupy all of Afghanistan within a short time of the withdrawal of foreign troops. But how do the Afghan people view the Taliban?
Will they welcome the Taliban regime again? The reason for the welcome here is that when the Taliban first came to power in 1996, the Soviet government, tired of the Soviet occupation and the ensuing civil war, welcomed the Taliban government.
But during the five-and-a-half years of Taliban rule at the time, several Islamic fundamentalist rules were imposed on the public.
For example, women's education was almost stopped, and there were several other rules and regulations, including the provision of a mandatory veil for women, which in the eyes of the United Nations was a violation of human rights.
At the time, most countries, including the West, opposed the Taliban government in Afghanistan. And the Taliban government itself fueled that opposition by supporting Osama bin Laden and his group al-Qaeda.
As a result, the US operation in Afghanistan. However, with the overthrow of the Taliban government in a US operation in 2001, women's involvement in Afghan national life has increased significantly over the past two decades.
The rate of women's education has also increased. So, if the Taliban come to power right now and impose the same fundamentalist policies on the people as before, will the people accept it? This is a complex question!
Initially, the Afghan people, especially the Pashtuns, strongly opposed the US operation and expressed sympathy for the Taliban, but now the situation is slowly changing.
According to the Asia Foundation, a US-based organization, a large segment of the population sympathized with the Taliban in 2009, but in 2019, only 13.5 percent of the population sympathized with the Taliban.
In other words, a large part of the population is now against the Taliban.
On the other hand, considering the complex recent situation, the United States wants to keep one thousand troops in Kabul on the issue of security at the international airport.
Turkey has already announced that it will not withdraw all its troops. But the Taliban is adamant in its position. They want the full implementation of the Doha Accords by withdrawing all foreign troops from Afghan soil.
All in all, there is no doubt that the situation in Afghanistan is getting more and more complicated.
Although the agreement pledges that the Taliban will not be associated with al-Qaeda, ISIS, or any other type of terrorist organization in the future, it is clear from the UN data that the Taliban's contacts with al-Qaeda are still ongoing.
The Khorasan branch of ISIS is also active in the region. So there is no guarantee that the Taliban will live up to its promise to the United States.
In short, NATO's position on the complete withdrawal of foreign troops, the activities of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, as well as the current attitude of the Afghan people towards the Taliban, and the Taliban's response to all this have the potential to increase instability on Afghan soil.
Evidence of this is the Afghan military's attempt to save its life by dropping its weapons and fleeing abroad. Moreover, the issue of regional security in South Asia as a result of the Taliban aggression cannot be ignored.
Europe is already experiencing a small influx of Afghan immigrants. If the violence escalates, Central and South Asian countries will face such a downpour. And with that comes the risk of terrorism.
Read next:
Author: Jannatul Tazri Trisha
Alumni, Department of International Relations, Jahangirnagar University.
Email: trisha.jannat1112@gmail.com
Email: trisha.jannat1112@gmail.com
Date: 2021-07-08
